e.l.f. Cosmetics - AI Stock Analysis

Analysis generated August 6, 2025

e.l.f. Cosmetics is known for its wide range of high-quality, affordable beauty and skincare products. Established in 2004, the company has made a name for itself by leveraging social media to engage with its young, primarily female audience. Their product line spans across various categories, including cosmetics, skincare, brushes, and beauty kits. e.l.f. Cosmetics is committed to cruelty-free products and has a strong presence both in physical retail stores and online platforms.

Fundamental Analysis

The company reported revenue of $333M for the last quarter. This represents a decrease of 6.38% compared to the quarter before it, indicating a potential area of concern. However, when compared to the same quarter last year, there is a 3.58% increase, suggesting positive year-over-year growth.

The net income for the last quarter was $77M, signifying an increase of 118.21% compared to the previous quarter, a very positive sign of growth. Compared to the same quarter last year, this figure has surged by a whopping 430.23%, reinforcing the positive year-over-year growth trend.

EBITDA for the last quarter was reported at $9.9M, which marks a dramatic decrease of 71.65% compared to the previous quarter. This poses a significant cause for concern. Compared to the same quarter last year, EBITDA decreased by 68.15%, further indicating potential struggles in operational efficiency.

The current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for e.l.f. Cosmetics stands at 60.56. Typically, a high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, hinting at potential bearish sentiments. Additionally, insider sales observed in recent months also signal a bearish outlook.

Technical Analysis

The current stock price is $109.10, which is a decrease of 16.70% from a month ago, raising concerns in the short term. On a longer-term scale, the stock price has decreased by 39.97% over the past year, a harsher indicator of longer-term issues.

The trend analysis shows a bearish trajectory. The current Simple Moving Average over 10 days (SMA10) is 116.98, down from the previous SMA10 of 118.16. This suggests potential downward pressure in ongoing price movements. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43, indicating a neutral condition but leaning towards the bearish end.

Alternative Data Analysis

Looking at job postings and employee sentiment, e.l.f. Cosmetics currently has 51 open positions according to major job boards. This number has remained constant over the last couple of months, potentially indicating stability or stagnation rather than growth. Employee sentiment about the business outlook remains neutral, offering no strong signals either way.

Customer acquisition metrics show that the company's website garners an estimated 80,000 visitors monthly, with no meaningful fluctuations recently. App downloads have shown a drastic decrease, with an estimate of 0 users downloading their mobile apps daily—a worrisome trend possibly indicating a loss of customer engagement.

Customer engagement data shows e.l.f. Cosmetics has 7.5M followers on Instagram and 960,000 followers on Twitter, with no significant changes over the last few months. This stagnant social media growth could indicate a potential ceiling in brand engagement online.

Lastly, according to AltIndex’s AI Score, which evaluates a company using fundamental, technical, and alternative data points, e.l.f. Cosmetics has an AI score of 48, which classifies the stock as a hold.

Conclusion and Recommendation

The analysis of e.l.f. Cosmetics reveals a mixed bag. While the company’s net income shows impressive growth both sequentially and year-over-year, concerns arise from decreasing revenue and EBITDA figures sequentially. Technically, the stock is in a bearish trend with no substantial signs of immediate recovery. Alternative data metrics indicate neutral employee sentiment and customer engagement but show worrying signs in terms of app engagement.

Given these insights, the stock of e.l.f. Cosmetics may be best approached with caution. While there are glimmers of growth and stability, the bearish trend and stagnation in customer engagement metrics cannot be ignored. Potential investors may want to adopt a 'hold' stance until further positive indicators emerge.

Disclaimer: This AI stock analysis, generated by an experimental AI tool, is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Information is based on publicly available data and may not always be accurate or current.