Dollar Tree - AI Stock Analysis

Analysis generated December 3, 2025

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is an American chain of discount variety stores that sells items for $1 or less. The company operates more than 15,000 stores across the 48 contiguous U.S. states and Canada. Dollar Tree competes in the retail industry, focusing primarily on selling low-cost household items, snacks, health and beauty products, and seasonal merchandise. The company's business model is highly appealing to cost-conscious consumers, particularly during economically challenging times when spending budgets are tight.

Fundamental Analysis

For the last quarter, Dollar Tree reported revenue of $4.57 billion. This represents a decrease of 1.49% compared to the quarter before it and a substantial decrease of 38.06% compared to the same quarter last year. These figures indicate potential concerns around the company's revenue generation capabilities. Lower revenue can be a sign of decreased consumer spending or increased competition.

The net income for the last quarter was $156 million, reflecting a decrease of 54.72% compared to the previous quarter but an increase of 17.45% compared to the same quarter last year. This suggests positive year-over-year growth in profitability despite the quarterly downturn.

EBITDA for the last quarter was $231 million, a decrease of 61.30% compared to the previous quarter and a decrease of 59.09% compared to the same quarter last year. The significant drop in EBITDA might indicate issues with operating efficiency or higher operational costs.

The current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 21.12, which is within a normal range for the retail sector. This indicates that the stock is neither overvalued nor undervalued based on current earnings.

Technical Analysis

Today's stock price is $112.92, reflecting an increase of 11.97% compared to a month ago and 52.95% compared to a year ago. These figures suggest a positive short-term and long-term trend, as the price is on an upward trajectory.

The current Simple Moving Average (SMA10) is 108.96, which is higher than the previous SMA10 of 107.85, indicating a potential upward trend in price movement. The bullish trend is further supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 18, indicating a potentially oversold condition that could precede a price increase.

Alternative Data Analysis

According to data from popular job boards, Dollar Tree has 12,471 open positions, up by 12% in the last couple of months, indicating a company in expansion mode. This is potentially a healthy sign as it suggests growth aspirations. However, employee sentiment reveals that only 34% of employees have a positive outlook on the company, a concerning sign that could impact productivity and morale.

For customer acquisition, Dollar Tree's website has an estimated 20 million visitors, up by 27% in the last couple of months, and its mobile apps are downloaded by approximately 3,000 users every day, up by 29% in the last couple of months. Both trends are bullish as they indicate growing consumer interest and engagement.

On the customer engagement side, Dollar Tree has 990,000 followers on Instagram, up by 7% in the last couple of months, showing an increased interest in the company. Conversely, their Twitter following stands at 180,000 followers, down by 2% in the same period, signaling a slight loss in interest.

Furthermore, AltIndex's AI score, which predicts stock prices based on fundamental, technical, and alternative data, assigns Dollar Tree a score of 33, indicating a sell signal.

Conclusion and Recommendation

Dollar Tree's performance presents a mixed bag of data points. While the company's recent revenue and EBITDA figures are concerning, the positive net income growth and steady P/E ratio provide some solace. The bullish technical indicators point to a promising short-term and long-term upward trend in stock price. However, the alternative data presents a more cautious picture with increased positions and engagement counterbalanced by poor employee outlook and a weak AI score.

Given the conflicting indicators from the fundamental, technical, and alternative data analyses, a cautious approach is recommended for Dollar Tree's stock. While the short-term trends look promising, the financial health and employee sentiment pose significant risks that cannot be ignored. Investors should weigh these factors carefully and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

Disclaimer: This AI stock analysis, generated by an experimental AI tool, is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Information is based on publicly available data and may not always be accurate or current.