BigBear.ai - AI Stock Analysis

Analysis generated October 14, 2025

BigBear.ai is a data-driven, AI-powered company specializing in the development and implementation of analytical software solutions. The company's products and services are geared towards leveraging large-scale data analytics and machine learning to optimize business outcomes and drive growth. Their client base spans various industries, including finance, healthcare, and government sectors, reflecting a broad applicability of their technology.

Fundamental Analysis

In the most recent quarter, BigBear.ai reported a revenue of $32 million. This represents a decrease of 6.57% compared to the previous quarter. Additionally, when compared to the same quarter last year, there's a notable 18.38% decline in revenue. This trend signals potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum and could be a concern for long-term growth.

Net income for the last quarter stood at $229 million, marking a 268.82% decrease quarter-over-quarter, and a startling 1,847.85% decrease year-over-year. Such substantial declines in net income are alarming and may indicate issues in cost management or a one-time financial setback.

On a brighter note, the EBITDA for the quarter was $0, reflecting a 100.00% increase both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. This positive growth in EBITDA suggests some improvement in operational efficiency or a shift towards more profitable ventures.

However, the fact that several company insiders have been selling their stock recently could be a bearish signal, indicating a lack of confidence within the higher echelons of the company.

Technical Analysis

The current stock price is $8.91, representing a significant 76.09% increase compared to a month ago, and a staggering 406.25% increase over the past year. These trends point to strong positive sentiment and momentum in the market.

The Simple Moving Average (SMA10) is $7.65, which is higher than the previous SMA10 of $7.48. This upward movement suggests a potential continued rise in stock price.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 51, indicating neutral conditions. This suggests that the stock isn't overbought or oversold, providing room for further movement either up or down.

Alternative Data Analysis

Job postings at BigBear.ai have decreased by 11% to 34 open positions over the last couple of months. This could indicate efforts to improve margins or cut costs rather than expanding, which is not ideal for a growing company.

Employee sentiment is described as neutral, which does not provide much confidence in terms of internal morale and future outlook.

Conversely, BigBear.ai has experienced an increase in web traffic, with 160,000 visitors to their webpage—a 23% increase in the last few months. This is a bullish signal, potentially indicating an uptick in customer engagement and acquisition.

Social media metrics also show positive engagement trends with a 35% increase in Instagram followers to 1,500 and a 33% increase in Twitter followers to 8,400. Such increases suggest growing interest and awareness of the company among the general populace.

Finally, according to AltIndex's AI score, which incorporates fundamental, technical, and alternative data analysis, BigBear.ai has received a score of 54, indicating a hold signal.

Conclusion

BigBear.ai presents a mixed bag of potential and concern. The decrease in revenue and substantial declines in net income cast a shadow on the company's short-term financial health. However, the zero EBITDA figure showing a 100% increase is a positive sign that could hint at future growth.

On the technical side, the stock has shown impressive upward momentum, both in the short-term and long-term, supported by improving moving averages and neutral RSI, suggesting potential room for further growth.

Alternative data paints a nuanced picture: while job postings and employee sentiment are less encouraging, the increased web traffic and social media engagement points to rising interest and potential customer acquisition.

Given these mixed signals, a cautious approach is recommended. It may be prudent to hold the stock and monitor for additional data points that could better clarify the company's trajectory.

Disclaimer: This AI stock analysis, generated by an experimental AI tool, is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Information is based on publicly available data and may not always be accurate or current.