Why Alibaba’s Stock Could Soar: The Hidden Data Signals Everyone’s Missing
November 12, 3:44 pm
After a turbulent few years plagued by regulatory crackdowns and geopolitical risk, the Chinese tech giant Alibaba Group (BABA) appears to be regaining momentum. Its stock is up 75% over the past year, despite a modest 5% pullback in the past month. Beneath the surface, alternative data from AltIndex reveals a much stronger narrative than price action alone would suggest.
What Alternative Data Says About BABA
While traditional financial analysis remains crucial, growth stories are increasingly shaped by alternative data - and Alibaba’s recent digital footprint tells a compelling story.
Web Traffic to Alibaba.com Nearly Doubles
Traffic to Alibaba.com has surged over the past year, nearly doubling according to our estimates — including a 64% increase in just the last three months. This rise isn't just a surface-level metric; it highlights a significant uptick in global interest across both consumer-facing and business channels.
For individuals, it reflects growing engagement with Alibaba’s vast e-commerce ecosystem. But more importantly, the spike also signals expanding interest from international businesses looking to source goods, raw materials, and suppliers - especially as global supply chains stabilize post-pandemic. This renewed B2B demand is critical, as Alibaba’s platform remains one of the world’s largest marketplaces for wholesale transactions and procurement at scale.
Altogether, the surge in web traffic underscores both the broadening appeal of Alibaba’s services and the company’s positioning as a go-to global hub for commerce. It’s a leading indicator for higher transaction volume, and ultimately, stronger long-term revenue growth.
App Downloads Point to Expanding Global Reach
The momentum doesn't stop at the desktop. Mobile app downloads for Alibaba have risen 28% in the last three months alone, according to our estimates. This increase suggests rising global engagement with Alibaba’s mobile platforms, which are central to its strategy in emerging markets and mobile-first regions.
As mobile continues to dominate e-commerce traffic worldwide, the spike in downloads is a key signal of Alibaba’s growing consumer relevance — especially in Southeast Asia, where Alibaba owns stakes in platforms like Lazada.
A Look at Fundamentals
Retail Performance and Consumer Tailwinds
Alibaba’s e-commerce division has seen improving profitability thanks to stronger consumer spending in China. Following years of pandemic-related constraints and macro uncertainty, Chinese consumers are spending again. This trend is helping Alibaba return to consistent growth in its retail business, even as competition remains fierce.
Cloud Computing: The Next Growth Engine
The most exciting part of Alibaba’s future lies in its cloud computing business. Revenue for the segment grew 26% in the most recent quarter, largely fueled by skyrocketing demand for AI services. In fact, AI-related revenue has grown at triple-digit rates for eight straight quarters. The company is also expanding its domestic production of AI chips, cutting reliance on Western suppliers and boosting margins.
To support this growth, Alibaba announced it will exceed its previous capital expenditure forecast of 380 billion yuan (around $53 billion), with the goal of fueling innovation and scaling its cloud infrastructure.
This is a clear sign that Alibaba’s earlier R&D investments are starting to bear fruit — a classic case of lagging indicators catching up in the form of improved margins, operational efficiency, and long-term competitiveness.
Wall Street and Political Backing
High-profile investors are also taking notice. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest recently added nearly 69,000 shares of Alibaba across multiple ETFs, showing renewed confidence in the company’s long-term trajectory. Her purchase was followed by a bullish note from Mizuho analyst James Lee, who reaffirmed his buy rating and raised his price target to $195.
What’s more, several U.S. politicians — including Lisa McClain, Josh Gottheimer, and Rob Bresnahan — have also been buying Alibaba stock. While politician trading should never be the sole basis for an investment, it often signals behind-the-scenes optimism and a broader acceptance of the company as a viable long-term bet, despite geopolitical tensions.
Risks Worth Acknowledging
Of course, no investment comes without risk. Alibaba remains exposed to regulatory oversight from Chinese authorities and ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China. Yet, the company has taken measured steps to comply with national policies, and signs suggest a more stable regulatory environment going forward.
Moreover, Alibaba’s diversification into international markets, cloud computing, and AI gives it multiple levers for growth — even if one segment underperforms.
What is the Target Price for BABA?
Our model recently assigned a new target price of $183.08 for Alibaba. This projection is based on several key signals:
- A month-over-month increase in web traffic
- A spike in mobile app downloads
- Positive sentiment momentum across stock forums
- An increase in Alibaba-related job posts
- Improving long-term financial fundamentals
Alongside the price prediction, Alibaba currently holds an AI Score of 69 on AltIndex — which represents a clear buy signal. The AI Score combines alternative data insights like digital growth, sentiment shifts, and hiring activity to evaluate a company’s overall health and performance potential. A score above 65 typically reflects strong bullish signals and historically has led to outperformance in our backtests.
Bottom Line
Alibaba is no longer just an e-commerce giant; it is becoming a diversified technology powerhouse with massive upside potential. From explosive web traffic and mobile growth to accelerating cloud revenue and rising investor confidence, the signals are aligning for a strong bull case.
At today’s price around $157.90, the stock offers compelling value, especially considering the AltIndex price prediction of $183.08 and a buy-rated AI Score of 69. With a forward P/E of just 23 and expanding margins in AI and cloud, Alibaba is positioning itself as a top-tier growth story in global tech.
For investors looking for asymmetric upside and exposure to a rebounding Chinese consumer and a maturing cloud empire, Alibaba deserves a close look.
Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. All investments involve risk, and you should conduct your own research or consult a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.
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