11 Stocks to Watch as the US Moves to 'Run' Venezuela

January 3, 3:56 pm

Earlier today, the U.S. launched Operation Absolute Resolve, a series of airstrikes and a special operations mission that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.

With President Trump announcing that the U.S. will "run" Venezuela during a transition and actively involve U.S. companies in the oil sector, market analysts are looking at specific stocks and sectors - primarily energy and defense - that might benefit in the months to come. Let's take a closer look at some of the candidates.

1. The Energy "Reconstruction" Leaders

President Trump explicitly stated that U.S. firms would "spend billions" to fix Venezuela's crumbling infrastructure.

Halliburton (HAL):
Often called the "first boots on the ground" in oil restoration. Halliburton has maintained a skeleton crew in Venezuela for years just to preserve its "mothballed" equipment. They are the primary candidate for the massive technical contracts required to repair wells and restart stagnant production.

Chevron (CVX):
The clear frontrunner. As the only U.S. major that maintained active joint ventures in Venezuela prior to the strike, Chevron has the most "institutional knowledge" and existing infrastructure to ramp up production immediately.

SLB (formerly Schlumberger):
Like Halliburton, SLB has significant equipment already stored in-country. They are essential for the high-tech "subsurface" work needed to tap the Orinoco Belt's heavy reserves.

2. The Financial & Debt Claimants

A U.S.-led transition likely means a "cleaning of the books," which could lead to massive payouts for companies with long-standing legal claims.

ConocoPhillips (COP):
This is a "recovery play." ConocoPhillips has been chasing over $11 billion in arbitration awards since their assets were seized in 2007. A U.S. administration managing Venezuela’s oil revenue would likely prioritize settling these claims to restore international investor confidence.

ExxonMobil (XOM):
Similar to Conoco, Exxon has billions in outstanding claims. Furthermore, Exxon’s success in neighboring Guyana makes them a natural candidate to help manage the offshore and border-region reserves.

3. The Refining & Supply Chain Play

U.S. Gulf Coast refiners were built to process "heavy-sour" Venezuelan crude. Access to this "local" supply could significantly lower input costs compared to shipping oil from the Middle East.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC):
As the largest U.S. refiner, Marathon’s Gulf Coast facilities are specifically engineered for the "sludgy" heavy-sour crude Venezuela produces. Access to this "local" supply significantly lowers their feedstock costs compared to importing similar grades from the Middle East.

Valero Energy (VLO):
Often cited as the most complex independent refiner in the world, Valero is a primary "destination" for Venezuelan oil. Their high-tech "coking" units allow them to turn cheap, low-quality crude into high-value diesel and jet fuel, maximizing profit margins (crack spreads).

Phillips 66 (PSX):
Phillips 66 operates the Sweeny Refinery in Texas, which sits at the heart of the heavy crude pipeline network. They are positioned to be among the first to receive renewed shipments, reducing their reliance on more expensive Canadian or Mexican alternatives.

These stocks are essentially a bet on lower input costs. If the U.S. can successfully "get the oil flowing," these three companies will likely see their refining margins expand as they swap out expensive mid-continent oil for cheap, local Venezuelan "sludge."

4. Defense and Intelligence

The precision of the raid - utilizing 150+ aircraft and Delta Force - highlights the continued demand for advanced military tech.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) & Northrop Grumman (NOC):
As the makers of the F-22s and stealth drones used in the operation, these companies benefit from the "Donroe Doctrine" (Trump's version of the Monroe Doctrine), which emphasizes U.S. military dominance in the Western Hemisphere.

Palantir (PLTR):
Palantir is heavily involved in the data analytics and targeting used by U.S. Special Operations. The successful "discreet and precise" capture of Maduro validates the use of these high-level intelligence platforms.

Summary: The 11-Stock Venezuela Watchlist

The table below summarizes the 11-stock Venezuela Watchlist, highlighting the companies with exposure to energy markets, defense spending, and global geopolitics. Each stock is shown with its industry, current market cap, and AltIndex AI Score - a data-driven score that combines financial performance with alternative data signals such as online sentiment, hiring trends, and market attention. Note that the AI score was generated before Operation Absolute Resolve.

Company		Industry	Market Cap	AI Score
	ConocoPhillips COP	Oil & Gas	$116.9B	60
	Chevron CVX	Oil & Gas	$307.1B	34
	Halliburton HAL	Oil & Gas	$24.1B	48
	Lockheed Martin LMT	Aerospace & Defense	$116.0B	55
	Marathon Petroleum MPC	Oil & Gas	$49.4B	42
	Northrop Grumman NOC	Aerospace & Defense	$81.6B	48
	Palantir PLTR	Data warehousing	$423.7B	51
	Phillips 66 PSX	Oil & Gas	$52.1B	30
	SLB SLB	Oil & Gas	$57.3B	59
	Valero Energy VLO	Oil & Gas	$50.6B	44
	ExxonMobil XOM	Oil & Gas	$513.0B	46

Key Market Risks to Watch

Sovereignty & Legality:
The UN and countries like China have already condemned the strike as a violation of international law. Retaliatory sanctions or diplomatic friction could create volatility in broader markets until the legal framework for the U.S. transition is established.

Infrastructure Sabotage:
While the U.S. intends to "run" the country, the physical state of the oil fields is dire. Any "scorched earth" sabotage by fleeing loyalists could delay the reconstruction timeline, turning a "quick fix" into a multi-year capital intensive project.

Monitoring Expansion via Job Postings:
A key signal for investors will be how quickly U.S. firms like Halliburton and Chevron begin hiring for South American operations. Massive surges in local job postings are often the first "boots on the ground" indicator of a company’s confidence in the transition.

Investor Tip: At AltIndex, we track real-time job postings across the energy and defense sectors. This alternative data allows you to spot expansion efforts before they are officially announced in quarterly earnings. Sign up to get instant notifications when companies like HAL or CVX start ramping up their Venezuelan workforce.

Disclaimer: Market reactions to military events are highly volatile. While these companies have clear links to the region, geopolitical risks - including potential damage to oil infrastructure during the conflict - can offset these benefits. The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. All investments involve risk, and you should conduct your own research or consult a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.

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